One of the surprises in happiness research is that we can actually predict 80 % of the variance in average happiness in nations. In our open letter, we use this knowledge to judge whether the Ukraine war will make Russian people happier. The short answer is ’No’. During the reign of Mr. Putin happiness in Russia has increased until very recently, but he is about the squander the gains he made. This letter was published without the graph in The Independent on 30 March 2022.